The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery (American). 2009;91:2276-2286.
doi:10.2106/JBJS.H.01521
© 2009 The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Inc.
Orthopaedics in 2020: Predictors of Musculoskeletal Need*
Michael J. Dunbar, MD, FRCSC, PhD1,
Andrew Howard, MD, FRCSC, MSc2,
Earl R. Bogoch, MD, FRCSC3,
Javad Parvizi, MD, FRCS4 and
Hans J. Kreder, MD5
1 Halifax Infirmary Hospital, 1796 Summer Street, Suite 4822, Halifax, NS B3H 3A7, Canada. E-mail address for M.J. Dunbar: Michael.dunbar@dal.ca
2 Hospital for Sick Children, Room S-107, 555 University Avenue, Toronto, ON M5G 1X8, Canada
3 St. Michael's Hospital, Suite 800, 55 Queen Street East, Toronto, ON M5C 1R6, Canada
4 Department of Surgery, The Rothman Institute, 925 Chestnut Street, 5th Floor, Philadelphia, PA 19107
5 Division of Orthopaedic Surgery, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, 2075 Bayview Avenue—MG 365, Toronto, ON M4N 3M5, Canada
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Introduction
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Although the year 2020 is just over a decade away, changes in population demographics as well as advancements in knowledge, techniques, and treatments will likely lead to substantial changes in the delivery of orthopaedic care. One specific driver of the projected change is the fact that the North American population is aging. Projections show that, by 2020, 16.3% of the U.S. population and approximately 25% of the Canadian population will be sixty-five years of age or older, double the current number1,2. This has led to projections for an increased incidence and prevalence of age-related musculoskeletal conditions, such as fragility fractures and osteoarthritis3-8. Concurrent with the projections showing an increased need for orthopaedic services in 2020 is a projection showing a decreased number of full-time-equivalent orthopaedic surgeons, mostly due to retirement9.
In light of these factors, a symposium was held, in June 2008, at the Combined Annual Meeting . . . [Full Text of this Article]

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