The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery (American). 2008;90:540-553.
doi:10.2106/JBJS.G.00004
© 2008 The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Inc.
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Predicting Scoliosis Progression from Skeletal Maturity: A Simplified Classification During Adolescence

James O. Sanders, MD1, Joseph G. Khoury, MD2, Shyam Kishan, MD3, Richard H. Browne, PhD4, James F. Mooney, III, MD5, Kali D. Arnold, MD6, Sharon J. McConnell, MS7, Jeanne A. Bauman, MD8 and David N. Finegold, MD9

1 Department of Orthopaedics and Rehabilitation, University of Rochester, 601 Elmwood Avenue, Rochester, NY 14624. E-mail address: james_sanders{at}urmc.rochester.edu
2 University of Alabama at Birmingham, 316 A.C.C., 1600 7th Avenue South, Birmingham, AL 35233-1711. E-mail address: joseph.khoury{at}ortho.uab.edu
3 Loma Linda University Medical Center, 11406 Loma Linda Drive, Loma Linda, CA 92354
4 Texas Scottish Rite Hospital for Children, 2222 Welborn Street, Dallas, TX 75219
5 Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Medical University of South Carolina, 96 Jonathan Lucas Street, CSB 708, Charleston, SC 29425
6 Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Allegheny General Hospital, 1307 Federal Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15212
7 Shriners Hospitals for Children, 1645 West 8th Street, Erie, PA 16505
8 Hamot Medical Center, 201 State Street, Erie, PA 16550
9 Department of Medical Genetics, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, 3705 Fifth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213

Investigation performed at Shriners Hospitals for Children, Erie, Pennsylvania

Disclosure: In support of their research for or preparation of this work, one or more of the authors received, in any one year, outside funding or grants in excess of $10,000 from the Scoliosis Research Society. Neither they nor a member of their immediate families received payments or other benefits or a commitment or agreement to provide such benefits from a commercial entity. No commercial entity paid or directed, or agreed to pay or direct, any benefits to any research fund, foundation, division, center, clinical practice, or other charitable or nonprofit organization with which the authors, or a member of their immediate families, are affiliated or associated.

Background: Both the Tanner-Whitehouse-III RUS score, which is based on the radiographic appearance of the epiphyses of the distal part of the radius, the distal part of the ulna, and small bones of the hand, and the digital skeletal age skeletal maturity scoring system, which is based on just the metacarpals and phalanges, correlate highly with the curve acceleration phase in girls with idiopathic scoliosis. However, these systems require an atlas and access to the scoring system, making their use impractical in a busy clinical setting. We sought to develop a simplified system that would correlate highly with scoliosis behavior but that would also be rapid and reliable for clinical practice.

Methods: A simplified staging system involving the use of the Tanner-Whitehouse-III descriptors was developed. It was tested for intraobserver and interobserver reliability by six individuals on thirty skeletal age radiographs. The system was compared with the timing of the curve acceleration phase in a cohort of twenty-two girls with idiopathic scoliosis.

Results: The average intraobserver unweighted kappa value was 0.88, and the average weighted kappa value was 0.96. The percentage of exact matches between readings for each rater was 89%, and 100% of the differences were within one unit. The average interobserver unweighted kappa value was 0.71, and the average weighted kappa value was 0.89. The percentage of exact matches between two reviewers was 71%, and 97% of the interobserver differences were within one stage or matched. The agreement was highest between the most experienced raters. Interobserver reliability was not improved by the use of a classification-specific atlas. The correlation of the staging system with the curve acceleration phase was 0.91.

Conclusions: The simplified skeletal maturity scoring system is reliable and correlates more strongly with the behavior of idiopathic scoliosis than the Risser sign or Greulich and Pyle skeletal ages do. The system has a modest learning curve but is easily used in a clinical setting and, in conjunction with curve type and magnitude, appears to be strongly prognostic of future scoliosis curve behavior.

Level of Evidence: Prognostic Level I. See Instructions to Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.


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